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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."